Which Cruises May (And May Not) Be Coming To Galveston

Last year, it was announced that a third cruise terminal would be built in Galveston. So what does this additional berthing space mean for cruises from the island? Will more cruise lines and ships arrive with the opening of the new facility?

Let’s start with the concrete information we already know.

FACTS

As of this writing, there are three cruise lines calling Galveston home:

Carnival Cruise Line – Three ships currently sail year-round from Texas, with a fourth coming in 2021. Right now, Carnival Dream offers mostly 4- and 5-night cruises, while Carnival Freedom and Carnival Vista sail mostly 7-night voyages. Come 2021, Carnival Freedom will leave Texas and two different ships – Carnival Breeze and Carnival Radiance – will call Galveston home. Carnival Breeze, which used to call Texas home, will return to take over the 4- & 5-night cruises from Carnival Dream, which will shift to 6-, 7- and 8-night voyages. Carnival Vista will continue its schedule, while Carnival Radiance will offer voyages from 4 to 9 nights in length. Itineraries for all four ships are currently on sale through April 2022.

Disney Cruise Line – Currently, Disney Wonder sails from Galveston each November, December, and early January with a variety of 4- to 7-night cruises. 2019 and 2020 cruises are on sale. The 2021 season has not yet been announced.

Disney Cruise Line has already announced a 10-year extension of its agreement with the Port of Galveston. The agreement allows for two optional extensions of five years each, making this a possible twenty year deal. It calls for a shared terminal for a ship equal to or larger than Disney Wonder or Disney Magic. There is also an agreed-upon minimum number of sailings, which will almost double the current number of cruises from Texas.

Royal Caribbean International – Liberty of the Seas sails 7-night cruises year-round, while Enchantment of the Seas and Adventure of the Seas split the duty of the shorter 4- and 5-night journeys. Between the three ships, voyages are on sale through April 2021.

Royal Caribbean has announced that they will be financing the building of a third cruise terminal in Galveston, slated to open in the fall of 2021. The cruise line has also promised to bring a larger class ship to the island, most likely an Oasis-class vessel. The cruise line would have exclusive use of the new terminal for its family of brands. The Royal Caribbean deal has a 20-year guarantee with four additional 10-year options, meaning that Royal could have up to 60 years ahead of them in Texas.

SPECULATION

DISNEY CRUISE LINE – The language of the new agreement calls for a ship equal to “or larger than” the current ships, meaning that another ship could potentially call Galveston home. Disney Cruise Line is about to build three new ships, those vessels coming in early 2022 (Disney Wish), another also scheduled for 2022, and 2023. I don’t expect two ships one year, so the schedule is more likely to be Disney Wish in 2022, Ship #6 in 2023, and Ship #7 in 2024. One of the big problems the cruise line currently has is its limited number of vessels. Two of their four ships (Disney Dream and Disney Fantasy) stay at Port Canaveral year-round, giving the line only two ships for the rest of the planet. Alaska is a no-brainer and Europe is a smart summer play as well, so that leaves Disney without a ship for Texas, even if they wanted to sail from Galveston in the summer months. Once the new ships come on line, there will be more flexibility.

With seven ships, it would be easy to see the following scenario:

2 new ships at Port Canaveral year-round
1 ship at either Miami or Fort Lauderdale year-round
1 ship in Asia year-round (rumored to be one of the new ships)
1 ship in Alaska for the summer and West Coast for the winter (LA/San Diego/Hawaii)
1 ship in Europe for the summer and East Coast for the winter (NY/Florida/Puerto Rico)

That leaves one more ship. Could Galveston get a ship year-round? Tough to say. Geographically it certainly makes sense and with the ability to sail consistently on the weekend (something Disney can’t do now from Texas) it might be an attractive option. Personally I think part of the problem with Disney from Texas is that they are only here during premium pricing periods and it is hard for families to discover how great one of their cruises truly is. We know for sure we’ll get more Disney – the question is how much. If we do get a ship year-round, I can virtually guarantee you it won’t be one of the brand new ships and I would be a bit surprised if it were Disney Dream or Disney Fantasy. The most likely scenario is Disney Magic or Disney Wonder, unless Disney decides to send the Dream or the Fantasy to Alaska. These ships would have to fit under the Bridge of the Americas to use the Panama Canal and visit Alaska, and their listed height is too tall for passage. Therefore, it is most likely that the Magic or Wonder will continue to service Alaska and therefore Texas (upon their return from their summer homes). Of course, Disney could choose to send the Alaska ship to the West Coast and/or Hawaii instead and send Galveston a ship from the East Coast or Europe.

CARNIVAL CRUISE LINE – There is no reason to expect any major changes from Carnival. Galveston has quickly become their second biggest port and there’s no sign of any slowdown. The balance also seems to be about right, with Carnival Dream & Carnival Breeze about as big a ship as you’d want for the shorter cruises, while Carnival Freedom, Carnival Radiance, and Carnival Vista are a nice mix of new and older styles of ships. Plus, with the current port limitations the Vista faces, keeping a similar sized ship in Texas makes sense so that Carnival can continue to visit Key West and the Eastern Caribbean. If the currently scheduled longer/exotic voyages sell well, I would expect to see even more trips to Half Moon Cay or a couple of more Panama Canal or other Carnival Journeys sailings. As for the ships, don’t expect any changes until at least April 2022, although it is kind of nice to have different (new to us) ships every few years. Carnival Radiance (formerly Carnival Victory) is going to be virtually brand new when she arrives, having just gone through a $200 million bow to stern makeover.

This is also a good time to address a common complaint about Galveston cruising: When are they gonna go somewhere new?!?

We hear you, but the biggest factor here is simple geography. Ships can only go so far in so many days, so your ports are limited on seven night voyages, not to mention the shorter getaway cruises. Plus, many ports have a limit in the number of ships that can visit at once. While Cozumel and Grand Cayman often have a large number of ships in port on any given day, other places might only have one or two berths. Scheduling these ships is a complex jigsaw puzzle when things go right, so when a storm or port closure happens, it’s amazing they can find a replacement as quickly as they often do. Believe me, the cruise lines hear you when it comes to variety, but realistically it is not something easy to do. Now back to the speculation.

ROYAL CARIBBEAN INTERNATIONAL – Royal Caribbean is a bit more difficult to predict. From what we have been told, it will indeed be an Oasis-class ship coming to Texas when the new terminal is ready. We are led to believe that this ship will replace the Liberty of the Seas (or whatever ship is here at the time doing the week-long voyages). We have not been told specifically which of the Oasis-class vessels will move to Texas, but we think it’s a safe bet it will be one of the two originals – the Allure of the Seas or the Oasis of the Seas herself. Regardless of which ship comes here, it will most likely sail nothing but 7-night cruises. The itineraries will be interesting, as these giants don’t tender. That most likely eliminates both Grand Cayman and Belize, at least in their current configurations. There is talk of Royal Caribbean financing some form of a dock in Grand Cayman, and that would sync up with their plans to sail there more often with an Oasis-class ship. I’m sure Royal Caribbean would also love to have Galveston cruise passengers visit their private island Cococay, so I’d expect it to be included on at least some of the itineraries.

But the Oasis-class ship can only take up one day a week, which leaves another weekend slot at the new terminal. It is possible that they will use the second slot for their shorter cruises, but that would mean it would likely be open every other weekend (they typically do 5-5-4 so the ship is there every other Saturday). There is also the possibility that the shorter cruises could use the old terminal or stay on a non-weekend schedule. The question will be whether or not they want to use that other weekend slot (we’re assuming Saturday but it could very well be Sunday) on a regular basis or just every other week. More on that in a bit.

My best guess with Royal Caribbean is that they’ll have the Oasis-class ship sail every Saturday or Sunday and sail their shorter cruises on the other day. They are expected to announce their 2021/2022 Caribbean deployment next week, so we might have some concrete answers soon.

OTHER CRUISE LINES COMING?

With a new terminal for Royal Caribbean and Disney likely only having one ship in Texas at a time, this leaves at least one weekend slot open at one of the old terminals. There’s no way that will stay open for long and at least one other cruise line coming to Galveston is almost guaranteed. Here are some potential candidates for that extra slot and the reasons why they might (or might not) come to Texas. With most of these, if they do come I’d expect seasonal sailings at first and not a full-time commitment from the start.

CELEBRITY CRUISES – For those that don’t know, Celebrity is a sister brand to Royal Caribbean. Since the new terminal is exclusively for their company’s use, it would make sense to have as many of their products there as they can. Celebrity has sailed from Texas before, but it was many years ago and this is a different brand now. I could see them sending one of their smaller ships here to test the waters, but I’m not sure if the itineraries from Galveston would be varied enough to satisfy their clientele. They are on a ship-building spree, so their fleet will just have enough ships that Galveston could be a possibility.

Chances of seeing them in Galveston: 50%

HOLLAND AMERICA LINE – Like Celebrity, Holland America is a mid-level luxury brand that may or may not fit into the Galveston model. One thing going for the line is that they have a large number of ships, but the downside is that Holland America is known for their variety of itineraries and like with Celebrity, I fear that Galveston might limit them too much. They have an extensive Alaska product, so it would be easy for them to do what Disney has done in the past and send a ship here in the winter for a few months.

Chances of seeing them in Galveston: 30%

MSC CRUISES – If you buy into their industry marketing, MSC will be a player in the North American cruise market in the coming years. They are certainly building new ships and adding more product from Florida, but their future beyond those ports is questionable at best. If they are truly going to be a dominant force for American cruisers, they will have to expand beyond Florida and Galveston would be a logical choice. That being said, I think they need to increase their brand’s overall recognition with the cruising public before expanding beyond Florida.

Chances of seeing them in Galveston: 10%

NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE – We’ve seen NCL in Texas before, both in Galveston and in Houston. They have a large fleet as well, so they are probably one of the top two or three likely suspects to take that extra slot. They’re also currently sailing from New Orleans seasonally, so another Gulf Coast port isn’t unreasonable. Without the limitations they faced at the Houston Cruise Port last time they were here, Galveston could very well be home to an NCL ship in the future. I have personally been told that discussions are underway at their Miami offices about “strategic” sailings from Texas (meaning that they would test the waters with a limited number of sailings instead of committing to a year-round schedule).

Chances of seeing them in Galveston: 70%

PRINCESS CRUISES – I think this is the most likely candidate to take the other weekend slot at the old terminal, especially if you’re talking on a year-round basis. Princess has two new ships coming on line in the next two years, giving them the flexibility to bring us a ship at least for a few months as a test. They’ve sailed from Galveston before and are the perfect blend of price vs. premium. While I still expect any new line to be seasonal at first, Princess would be the one cruise line that might commit to something more up front.

Chances of seeing them in Galveston: 80%

These are the likely candidates for a fourth (and maybe fifth) line from Galveston.